May 15-31, 2004 Edition

BISG Predicts Healthy

Growth in Certain Segments

of Publishing Industry

NEW YORK, NY/05/12/2004—Annual consumer expenditures for books will reach $44 billion by 2008, according to Book Industry TRENDS 2004. Trade, mass-market and professional publishing revenues will rise roughly 10 percent between now and then. Revenue growth will be higher still for university press and college publishers, but the most significant growth will be in the elhi and standardized-test segments of the industry, with respective increases of more than 20 and 45 percent.

These projections, among others, are included in Book Industry TRENDS 2004, just released by the Book Industry Study Group (BISG), and are designed to “reflect and respond to the many challenges currently facing members of the book industry in a difficult economic climate and a complex trading environment,” in the words of BISG Executive Director Jeff Abraham.

TRENDS 2004 figures span 11 years in 260 pages, with estimates for 1998–2003 and projections for 2004–2008 in charts, tables and analyses created by Albert N. Greco and Robert H. Wharton of Fordham University’s Graduate School of Business Administration.

For this new edition, Professors Greco and Wharton drew on a broadened array of sources, including annual reports for key members of the industry; analyses prepared by Wall Street analysts such as Bear Stearns, BNP Paribas and Credit Suisse/First Boston; major studies such as Christian Publishing Trends and Subtext; findings by Standard & Poor’s, Publishers Weekly, The New York Times, Library Journal, The Wall Street Journal and other periodicals; and information from trade organizations such as the Association of American University Presses, the Publishers Marketing Association and the Association of American Publishers, and from government agencies such as the Commerce and Education Departments, the Census Bureau, the Federal Reserve Bank, the Congressional Budget Office, and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

What Else Is New?

For the first time, TRENDS includes articles based on interviews with more than two dozen industry experts. Written by Gayle Feldman, the PW Contributing Editor who is the author of Best and Worst of Times: The Changing Business of Trade Books 1975–2002, these articles introduce the book’s major sections and offer insights into price points, supply chain operations, revenue changes in specific sectors, and other trends and developments demonstrated by the tables and graphs.

Also for the first time, TRENDS presents:

An analysis of export figures that explains why the dollar value of exported books is at least five times higher than currently reported totals; A report on small and medium-sized publishers that provides dollar and unit sales numbers for a selected sample of this rapidly growing sub-sector, which now reportedly comprises 80,000 publishing companies.

TRENDS Is a Toolkit for Planning

Like its predecessors over the past 26 years, TRENDS 2004 provides tools, guidance, and information that will facilitate the achievement of business objectives for people throughout the publishing supply chain.

Book Industry TRENDS 2004 is published by the Book Industry Study Group—a not-for-profit research and standards organization whose members come from every sector of the publishing community. BISG provides a unique forum for identifying crucial issues and managing change by enabling interaction among publishers, booksellers, libraries, wholesalers, manufacturers, authors and suppliers.