Ah…the reason so few books sell more than 200 copies “might” be partly due to the quality of the writing, but the greatest challenge looms in the marketplace. The problem boils down to sheer numbers. Excuse me if my math contains rough estimates.
The top five traditional publishers (Penguin Random House, Harper Collins, Simon & Shuster, Hachette and McMillan) collectively turn out about 100,000 titles a year. Amazon posts about 1.4 million self published books annually. There are roughly 50 million Amazon titles floating around for sale at any given time.
The typical American reads about four or five books a year. If you include avid readers, the number increases to 12 to 14 books per year according to Gallup News.
About 21% of U.S. adults, or roughly 43-45 million people are functionally illiterate, according to National University, nu.edu. An estimated 130 million adults are unable to read a simple story to their children. Consider this: 59 million U.S. adults read below Level 1 on the PIAAC (Program for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies) scale. This level indicates very poor literacy skills, where individuals can, at best, read short texts to locate a single piece of information, or in many cases, are functionally illiterate. (Perhaps that’s why emojis have become so popular).
Reader motivation certainly plays a role in book sales. A book must be of exceptional quality to reach a small audience. The reader must want to read the story you write. For the author, understanding the audience certainly is key.
But, Let’s look at the market we are all trying to reach with book-length novels or non-fiction.
As of 2024, the United States adult population totaled 267 million people over the age of 18 (78 percent). The population is probably now more than 300 million.
About 32% of American adults read at least five books per year based on a recent YouGov survey. That reduces the most likely audience to roughly 25 million.
Look at the top five publishers alone. Say, they collectively release about 20,000 readers (100,000 book titles/5). Sales statistics suggest more than half of the 20,000 people likely read the mystery/suspense/thriller category (about 10,000); a quarter read romance 5,000); others read general fiction (5,000) and literature. And these account for only the top five publishers.
These five publishers must chase the same 20,000 avid readers with their wares.
A publisher likely will need to sell at least 5,000 copies per title to cover the company’s investment and hopefully return a profit.
Yes, a manuscript could be rejected for the quality of writing. But it could also be because the publisher doesn’t believe the company can sell enough copies to earn a decent return from the shriveling marketplace.
If we want to sell books, we need to double the reading public. Not only must we turn out good stories, we must encourage more people to read beyond AI assisted email, social posts and emojis. They must want to read for comprehension, to understand their human world.
The visual world of the Internet engages our eyes and appeals to our need for excitement under the control of AI algorithms. Reading engages the mind in individual experience and imagination.
Sure, there is a place for internet consumption. But reading and writing is one way to escape mechanical dominance. Many in Silicon Valley would like to see more AI robots than humans. We must keep AI in its place as a tool rather than a master of unsuspecting slaves.
Writers usually write because they are compelled to do so. Our stories must continue to touch our souls and help shape who we are as humans. The alternative is to simply watch the humanoids (like Elon Musk’s forthcoming Tesla-bots) crush humanity.
Please read more books.
